You've spent two decades building your HVAC business. You've survived the slow winters, the brutal summers, the technician who quit mid-season, and that one customer who left a 1-star review because you wouldn't come out on Christmas Day.
So here's the uncomfortable question: When it's time to sell, will you actually get what your business is worth?
Or will you be like the majority of owners Patrick Lange sees—leaving hundreds of thousands, sometimes millions, on the table because they made critical mistakes years before they ever listed their company for sale?
But what's happening right now is different.
Baby boomers—the generation that built thousands of successful HVAC companies across the country—are hitting retirement age. They're in their 60s. They're tired. And they're ready to exit.
Patrick calls it the "silver tsunami," and it's creating conditions we haven't seen before.
Add to that the fact that COVID proved the HVAC industry is genuinely recession-resistant. While much of the economy shut down, HVAC contractors kept working—and many had some of their best years ever.
"I live in Florida. I don't know any husband dumb enough in the state of Florida to tell his wife he's not fixing the air conditioner. And that's nationwide, I think we see that." — Patrick Lange
That's the business we're in. Essential. Necessary. Valuable.
But here's the critical part: Whether you can capitalize on this opportunity depends entirely on decisions you're making right now.
If you get your news from industry headlines, you'd think private equity is the only game in town.
That's not even close to reality.
Of the 20-25 deals Patrick closes annually, only about half go to private equity or financially-backed buyers.
"The buyer pool is all over the place," Patrick says. "It really is pretty diverse currently."
This matters because different buyers value different things. A private equity group might prioritize recurring revenue and systems. A neighboring contractor might pay a premium for your geographic footprint. A family succession deal might hinge on transition timelines.
Understanding who your likely buyer is helps you build the right business now.
Private equity gets a bad rap in the HVAC industry.
Contractors worry that PE groups are going to consolidate the market, slash prices, cut service quality, and generally ruin everything good about the industry.
Patrick sees it differently.
"I think what people often overlook is that private equity entering the space really in most markets has raised pricing," he explains. "They didn't buy companies and then cut costs, cut pricing. From a seller perspective, private equity entering the space and buying companies has raised prices for sellers."
Let that sink in.
PE groups didn't come in and lower what they were willing to pay. They raised it. And that had a ripple effect across the entire market.
Now, when a regional buyer is competing against a PE-backed group for an acquisition, they have to match or beat that valuation. The rising tide lifted all boats.
"If you look at it from those two things, it's been a good thing for many people in the space," Patrick says.
Does that mean all PE groups are great partners? Of course not. Patrick is quick to point out that, like anything else, there are good ones and bad ones.
But the narrative that PE destroyed seller valuations? It's just not true.
Here's a common misconception: You need to be a massive operation to have a successful exit.
Not true.
Patrick's sweet spot is companies doing between $1.5 million and $5 million in annual sales. This year, roughly 20 of his 25 deals will be companies with less than $8 million in revenue.
You don't need to be huge to build something valuable.
What you do need:
If you have those things, there's a buyer for your business—whether you're doing $2 million or $20 million in revenue.
Revenue matters, but it's not the whole story.
Buyers are looking at multiples—how many times your EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) they're willing to pay.
Here's what increases your multiple:
Recurring Revenue
Memberships, maintenance plans, warranties—anything that creates predictable, contracted revenue. This is gold to buyers because it de-risks the acquisition.
Customer Retention
How sticky are your customers? Are they loyal to you or to the company? If you leave, do they leave too?
Systems and Processes
Is everything in your head, or do you have documented processes that allow the business to run without you?
Brand and Market Position
Do you dominate your market? Do you have strong online reviews? A recognizable brand?
Growth Trajectory
Are you flat, declining, or growing? Buyers pay premiums for businesses with momentum.
Third-Party Partnerships
Integrations with platforms like ServiceTitan, relationships with warranty providers like JB Warranties, monitoring systems like SmartAC—these signal that you're running a modern, scalable operation.
The contractors who maximize their exit value aren't just focused on revenue. They're building businesses that are attractive to buyers years before they ever list them for sale.
Most HVAC owners spend 20+ years building their business but less than 20 hours planning their exit.
That's a critical mistake.
Because by the time you decide you're ready to sell, you've already made dozens of decisions that impact your valuation—and many of them are impossible to reverse quickly.
Did you self-insure warranties instead of using a third-party administrator? That's a liability on your books.
Did you build the business around yourself instead of creating systems? That makes it unsellable.
Did you neglect recurring revenue in favor of high-margin replacement jobs? You just lowered your multiple.
The owners who get top dollar for their businesses start thinking like sellers years in advance.
They build with the end in mind. They create businesses that can thrive without them. They invest in systems, partnerships, and recurring revenue models that make their company more valuable.
And when it's time to sell, they have options. Multiple buyers. Competitive offers. Leverage.
Whether you're planning to sell next year or in a decade, here's what you should be doing right now:
The HVAC M&A market is hot right now. The silver tsunami is real. Buyers have capital. Valuations are strong.
But market conditions change.
Interest rates shift. Economic cycles turn. Buyer appetite fluctuates.
If you've been thinking about your exit, now is the time to start building for it—even if you're not ready to list your business today.
Because the contractors who get life-changing exits aren't the ones who wait until they're exhausted and desperate to sell.
They're the ones who saw the opportunity, built strategically, and positioned themselves to capitalize when the time was right.